Do you wonder what to expect from the Treasure Coast real estate market in 2024? Here's what you need to know:

Existing Home Sales should reach a sales rate exceeding 4.5 million in 2024. Lower mortgage rates will likely attract more buyers and sellers and increase listings and sales.

Market Trends

The Fed's interest rate policy is the main factor influencing the current marketplace. As the Fed has frequently changed rates, buyers have hesitated to make purchases, waiting for a return to lower rates. However, at some point, the desire to change their housing circumstances will overcome the wait for lower rates, as a return to rates in the 3% range is unlikely.

It is worth noting that rates have remained relatively high since the pandemic, and it would probably take another event like the pandemic to produce rates similar to that range. Over time, the percentage of people with a 3% range mortgage rate will decline, reducing the impact of the lock-in effect.

As for home prices, the real estate market is turning towards slow growth. While the number of homes available for sale was low in 2021 and 2022, it improved slightly in 2023 and 2024; we expect modest increases in the number of homes available for purchase, transaction count, and home prices, as well as a gradual recovery back to a regular market. It is important to remember that all real estate is local, and local market conditions may skew national statistics.

The supply of housing inventory will continue to affect home prices. The month's supply represents the amount of time it will take to sell the current inventory of homes based on the current sales rate. The supply is still well below the six-month supply, which is historically considered a balanced market. We haven't seen the supply exceed six months since the Great Recession. For home prices to decline significantly, the supply needs to spike.

Regarding mortgage rates, while rates may not be as low as 3%, we can still expect them to fall below what they are now. Rates did go up at the start of the year; they are anticipated to go down by the end of the year. With the Fed's recent pivot in policy, rates have dropped significantly since December. Rates will likely be in the 6% range, potentially dipping into the high 5% range.

Florida Treasure Coast Home Values

Finally, lower mortgage rates and new homes will lead to more new listings in 2024. While the inventory won't reach 2019 levels, inventory levels between 2019 and 2023 are a reasonable assumption.

In summary, moderating rates and an ongoing housing inventory shortage will affect home prices as supply increases and the real estate market turns towards slow growth. Things will get better, but they will get better slowly as we gradually return to a normalized market.